Logs & Traces

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                "crypto_macro_score",
                "usd_strong_crypto_headwind",
                "equity_risk_off"
              ],
              "macro_structural_score": -0.08782915288582742
            }
          },
          "meta_decision": {
            "action": "paper_only",
            "confidence": 0.2176,
            "constraints": {},
            "edge_score": 0.2418,
            "entry_quality_score": 0.42,
            "execution_vote": "allow",
            "expected_value_score": 0.1983,
            "explanation": "Meta decision derived from strategy/risk/execution/trend/price consistency.",
            "final_summary": "Meta decision derived from strategy/risk/execution/trend/price consistency.",
            "mode": "degraded",
            "price_asymmetry_score": 0.35,
            "raw_refs": {},
            "reason_codes": [
              "ml_trust_low"
            ],
            "reasons": [],
            "refs_used": [],
            "risk_vote": "allow",
            "should_trade": false,
            "signal": {
              "calibration_score": null,
              "drift_detected": false,
              "health_state": "unknown",
              "ml_trust": 0.0,
              "synthetic_price": true,
              "trend_direction": "flat"
            },
            "size_multiplier": 0.0,
            "skip_reason": "ml_trust_low",
            "trend_alignment_score": 0.4
          },
          "ml_judge": {
            "accepted_refs": [],
            "agreement_score": null,
            "confidence": null,
            "constraints": {},
            "explanation": "MLJudgeAgent assessed prediction trustworthiness and model agreement.",
            "horizon_fit": null,
            "mode": "llm_error",
            "raw_refs": {},
            "reasons": [],
            "refs_used": [
              {
                "kind": "ml_judgement",
                "ref": "artifact://136425",
                "title": "None",
                "why": "Judgement artifact used as trust source"
              }
            ],
            "rejected_refs": [],
            "signal": {},
            "trust_score": null,
            "usable": null
          },
          "onchain": {
            "bearish_signals": [
              "mempool_quiet:1_sat/vB \u2014 Bitcoin mempool nearly empty, low activity"
            ],
            "bias": "bullish",
            "bullish_signals": [
              "cross_exchange_funding_negative:-0.0000 \u2014 shorts overextended cross-exchange (squeeze risk)",
              "fear_greed_extreme_fear:15/100 \u2014 extreme panic, contrarian buy signal"
            ],
            "confidence": 0.6656,
            "constraints": {},
            "data_quality": "live",
            "derivatives_signal": "neutral",
            "exchange_flow_signal": "neutral",
            "explanation": "On-chain signals lean BULLISH (score: +0.228). Bullish factors: cross_exchange_funding_negative:-0.0000 \u2014 shorts overextended cross-exchange (squeeze risk); fear_greed_extreme_fear:15/100 \u2014 extreme panic, contrarian buy signal. Bearish factors: mempool_quiet:1_sat/vB \u2014 Bitcoin mempool nearly empty, low activity.",
            "mode": "deterministic",
            "network_signal": "shrinking",
            "onchain_available": true,
            "raw_refs": {},
            "reasons": [],
            "refs_used": [
              {
                "kind": "onchain_snapshot",
                "ref": "artifact://136377",
                "title": "None",
                "why": "Primary on-chain evidence"
              }
            ],
            "score": 0.228,
            "signal": {},
            "valuation_signal": "unknown"
          },
          "portfolio": {
            "allow_add": null,
            "confidence": null,
            "constraints": {},
            "explanation": "PortfolioAgent assessed exposure and sizing constraints.",
            "exposure_warning": null,
            "mode": "llm_error",
            "raw_refs": {},
            "reasons": [],
            "recommended_size_multiplier": null,
            "refs_used": [
              {
                "kind": "portfolio_snapshot",
                "ref": "artifact://136386",
                "title": "None",
                "why": "Portfolio snapshot used for exposure and correlation checks"
              }
            ],
            "signal": {}
          },
          "price": {
            "confidence": 0.3334,
            "constraints": {},
            "expected_close": 68860.5654623931,
            "expected_high": 69686.89224794183,
            "expected_low": 68034.23867684438,
            "expected_move_pct": -5.362497466216286,
            "explanation": "Deterministic price corridor from ML bias and realized volatility.",
            "horizon": "1h",
            "mode": "degraded",
            "path_shape": "trend",
            "predicted_close_is_synthetic": true,
            "price_range_68": {
              "high": 73635.59939999999,
              "low": 71889.3006
            },
            "price_range_95": {
              "high": 74421.43385999999,
              "low": 71103.46613999999
            },
            "raw_refs": {},
            "reasoning_summary": "Deterministic price corridor from ML bias and realized volatility.",
            "reasons": [],
            "refs_used": [],
            "signal": {
              "ml_score": -0.11916661036036191,
              "predicted_close_is_synthetic": true,
              "realized_vol_short": 0.012
            },
            "sl_hard": 67885.09432799139,
            "sl_soft": 69640.94236991448,
            "tp1": 73199.0247,
            "tp2": 73591.94193
          },
          "rag_judge": {
            "accepted_refs": [],
            "confidence": null,
            "consistency_score": null,
            "constraints": {},
            "explanation": "RAGJudgeAgent evaluated context relevance and quality.",
            "mode": "llm_error",
            "raw_refs": {},
            "reasons": [],
            "refs_used": [
              {
                "kind": "rag_judgement",
                "ref": "artifact://136421",
                "title": "None",
                "why": "Judgement artifact used as base evaluation"
              }
            ],
            "rejected_refs": [],
            "relevance_score": null,
            "signal": {},
            "usable": null
          },
          "risk": {
            "action_after_risk": "sell",
            "action_before_risk": "sell",
            "active_risk_factors": [
              {
                "blocking": false,
                "evidence": {
                  "ml_mode": null,
                  "signal_source": "deterministic_fallback"
                },
                "explanation": "Model confidence context is degraded or based on fallback inference.",
                "id": "model_degraded_or_fallback",
                "mitigation": "Lower aggressiveness and prioritize market/liquidity confirmation.",
                "refs": [
                  "artifact://136255",
                  "artifact://136447",
                  "artifact://136386"
                ],
                "score": 0.68,
                "severity": "elevated",
                "source": "ml.prediction",
                "title": "Model quality / fallback risk",
                "type": "model_risk"
              },
              {
                "blocking": false,
                "evidence": {
                  "allow_short": false
                },
                "explanation": "User profile/policy disallows short entry in current configuration.",
                "id": "policy_short_not_allowed",
                "mitigation": "Interpret as reduce-only or switch to allowed direction.",
                "refs": [
                  "artifact://136255",
                  "artifact://136447",
                  "artifact://136386"
                ],
                "score": 0.72,
                "severity": "high",
                "source": "risk_prefs",
                "title": "Short selling disabled by policy",
                "type": "policy_risk"
              },
              {
                "blocking": false,
                "evidence": {
                  "momentum": 6.184546878825343e-06
                },
                "explanation": "Momentum/entry timing is weak for directional execution.",
                "id": "strategy_timing_weak",
                "mitigation": "Wait for clearer trend confirmation.",
                "refs": [
                  "artifact://136255",
                  "artifact://136447",
                  "artifact://136386"
                ],
                "score": 0.44,
                "severity": "moderate",
                "source": "strategy.signal",
                "title": "Strategy timing risk",
                "type": "strategy_risk"
              }
            ],
            "autotrade_allowed": true,
            "blocking_risks": [],
            "caution_risks": [
              {
                "blocking": false,
                "evidence": {
                  "ml_mode": null,
                  "signal_source": "deterministic_fallback"
                },
                "explanation": "Model confidence context is degraded or based on fallback inference.",
                "id": "model_degraded_or_fallback",
                "mitigation": "Lower aggressiveness and prioritize market/liquidity confirmation.",
                "refs": [
                  "artifact://136255",
                  "artifact://136447",
                  "artifact://136386"
                ],
                "score": 0.68,
                "severity": "elevated",
                "source": "ml.prediction",
                "title": "Model quality / fallback risk",
                "type": "model_risk"
              },
              {
                "blocking": false,
                "evidence": {
                  "allow_short": false
                },
                "explanation": "User profile/policy disallows short entry in current configuration.",
                "id": "policy_short_not_allowed",
                "mitigation": "Interpret as reduce-only or switch to allowed direction.",
                "refs": [
                  "artifact://136255",
                  "artifact://136447",
                  "artifact://136386"
                ],
                "score": 0.72,
                "severity": "high",
                "source": "risk_prefs",
                "title": "Short selling disabled by policy",
                "type": "policy_risk"
              },
              {
                "blocking": false,
                "evidence": {
                  "momentum": 6.184546878825343e-06
                },
                "explanation": "Momentum/entry timing is weak for directional execution.",
                "id": "strategy_timing_weak",
                "mitigation": "Wait for clearer trend confirmation.",
                "refs": [
                  "artifact://136255",
                  "artifact://136447",
                  "artifact://136386"
                ],
                "score": 0.44,
                "severity": "moderate",
                "source": "strategy.signal",
                "title": "Strategy timing risk",
                "type": "strategy_risk"
              }
            ],
            "confidence": 0.5792023092256053,
            "confidence_after_risk": 0.3184046184512106,
            "confidence_before_risk": 0.37197537671195907,
            "constraints": {},
            "degraded_dependencies": [],
            "explanation": "Risk level low (score=0.21); 3 active factors, 0 blocking. Action sell -\u003e sell; size x0.25, confidence 0.37-\u003e0.32.",
            "explanation_for_chat": "Detected risks: model_degraded_or_fallback, policy_short_not_allowed, strategy_timing_weak. Main impact: forbid_short, reduce_size.",
            "explanation_for_ui": "Risk level low (score=0.21); 3 active factors, 0 blocking. Action sell -\u003e sell; size x0.25, confidence 0.37-\u003e0.32.",
            "manual_review_required": false,
            "max_position": 25.0,
            "mitigations": [
              "Lower aggressiveness and prioritize market/liquidity confirmation.",
              "Interpret as reduce-only or switch to allowed direction.",
              "Wait for clearer trend confirmation."
            ],
            "mode": "degraded",
            "ok": true,
            "raw_refs": {
              "market_snapshot": "artifact://136255",
              "portfolio": "artifact://136386",
              "rag": [],
              "strategy_agent_output": "artifact://136447"
            },
            "reasons": [
              "model_degraded_or_fallback",
              "policy_short_not_allowed",
              "strategy_timing_weak"
            ],
            "recommended_size_modifier": 0.25,
            "refs_used": [
              {
                "kind": "market_snapshot",
                "ref": "artifact://136255",
                "title": "None",
                "why": "Used as current market context for risk constraints and sizing checks."
              },
              {
                "kind": "strategy_agent_output",
                "ref": "artifact://136447",
                "title": "None",
                "why": "Used as the proposed strategy intent being evaluated by RiskAgent."
              },
              {
                "kind": "portfolio_snapshot",
                "ref": "artifact://136386",
                "title": "None",
                "why": "Used as portfolio exposure context for risk budgeting."
              }
            ],
            "risk_breakdown": {
              "data_risk": {
                "score": 0.3333333333333333,
                "severity": "moderate"
              },
              "event_risk": {
                "score": 0.0,
                "severity": "low"
              },
              "execution_risk": {
                "score": 0.0,
                "severity": "low"
              },
              "liquidity_risk": {
                "score": 0.0,
                "severity": "low"
              },
              "market_risk": {
                "score": 0.0,
                "severity": "low"
              },
              "model_risk": {
                "score": 0.68,
                "severity": "elevated"
              },
              "policy_risk": {
                "score": 0.72,
                "severity": "high"
              },
              "portfolio_risk": {
                "score": 0.0,
                "severity": "low"
              },
              "signal_risk": {
                "score": 0.40003971498071117,
                "severity": "moderate"
              },
              "strategy_risk": {
                "score": 0.44,
                "severity": "moderate"
              },
              "system_risk": {
                "score": 0.0,
                "severity": "low"
              }
            },
            "risk_confidence": 0.8,
            "risk_level": "low",
            "risk_score": 0.2057384962808258,
            "risk_summary": "Risk level low (score=0.21); 3 active factors, 0 blocking.",
            "signal": {},
            "stop_loss": 0.03889346
          },
          "sentiment": {
            "action": null,
            "bias": null,
            "confidence": null,
            "constraints": {},
            "event_strength": null,
            "explanation": "SentimentAgent analysis based on news flow and narratives.",
            "mode": "llm_error",
            "raw_refs": {},
            "reasons": [],
            "refs_used": [
              {
                "kind": "narratives",
                "ref": "artifact://136319",
                "title": "None",
                "why": "Narratives enrichment used as sentiment source"
              }
            ],
            "sentiment_score": null,
            "signal": {}
          },
          "strategy": {
            "action": "sell",
            "confidence": 0.37197537671195907,
            "constraints": {
              "allow_short": null,
              "blacklist": [],
              "horizon": null,
              "max_leverage": null,
              "max_position_usd": null,
              "preferred_assets": [],
              "style": null
            },
            "explanation": "StrategyAgent deterministic fallback used because LLM was unavailable or invalid. Decision was derived from ML direction, market momentum/regime, narrative sentiment and news bias.",
            "mode": "deterministic",
            "profile_summary_text": "language=Default",
            "raw_refs": {
              "market_snapshot": "artifact://136255",
              "ml": [
                "{\u0027prediction_ref\u0027: \u0027artifact://136403\u0027, \u0027model\u0027: \u0027tp_eq_sl\u0027, \u0027timeframe\u0027: \u00271h\u0027, \u0027confidence\u0027: 0.7938766393350818}",
                "{\u0027prediction_ref\u0027: \u0027artifact://136405\u0027, \u0027model\u0027: \u0027tp_3sl\u0027, \u0027timeframe\u0027: \u00271h\u0027, \u0027confidence\u0027: 0.9251244826190914}",
                "{\u0027prediction_ref\u0027: \u0027artifact://136407\u0027, \u0027model\u0027: \u0027sl_3tp\u0027, \u0027timeframe\u0027: \u00271h\u0027, \u0027confidence\u0027: 0.9379168608324758}",
                "{\u0027prediction_ref\u0027: \u0027artifact://136408\u0027, \u0027model\u0027: \u0027ensemble.direction\u0027, \u0027timeframe\u0027: \u00271h\u0027, \u0027confidence\u0027: 0.8933376454449184}",
                "{\u0027prediction_ref\u0027: \u0027artifact://136409\u0027, \u0027model\u0027: \u0027ensemble.price\u0027, \u0027timeframe\u0027: \u00271h\u0027, \u0027confidence\u0027: 0.8933376454449184}",
                "{\u0027prediction_ref\u0027: \u0027artifact://136410\u0027, \u0027model\u0027: \u0027ensemble.orchestrated\u0027, \u0027timeframe\u0027: \u00271h\u0027, \u0027confidence\u0027: 0.8933376454449184}"
              ],
              "narratives": "artifact://136319",
              "news": [],
              "rag": []
            },
            "reasons": [],
            "refs_used": [
              {
                "kind": "market_snapshot",
                "ref": "artifact://136255",
                "title": "None",
                "why": "Used as the primary market state input for strategy formation."
              },
              {
                "kind": "narratives",
                "ref": "artifact://136319",
                "title": "None",
                "why": "Used as narrative/sentiment context for structural market interpretation."
              },
              {
                "kind": "ml_prediction",
                "ref": "artifact://136403",
                "title": "tp_eq_sl:1h",
                "why": "Used as ML directional evidence for short-term strategy assessment."
              },
              {
                "kind": "ml_prediction",
                "ref": "artifact://136405",
                "title": "tp_3sl:1h",
                "why": "Used as ML directional evidence for short-term strategy assessment."
              },
              {
                "kind": "ml_prediction",
                "ref": "artifact://136407",
                "title": "sl_3tp:1h",
                "why": "Used as ML directional evidence for short-term strategy assessment."
              },
              {
                "kind": "ml_prediction",
                "ref": "artifact://136408",
                "title": "ensemble.direction:1h",
                "why": "Used as ML directional evidence for short-term strategy assessment."
              },
              {
                "kind": "ml_prediction",
                "ref": "artifact://136409",
                "title": "ensemble.price:1h",
                "why": "Used as ML directional evidence for short-term strategy assessment."
              },
              {
                "kind": "ml_prediction",
                "ref": "artifact://136410",
                "title": "ensemble.orchestrated:1h",
                "why": "Used as ML directional evidence for short-term strategy assessment."
              }
            ],
            "signal": {
              "asset": "BTC",
              "bias": "bearish",
              "blockers": [],
              "direction": "down",
              "factors": [
                "ml_directional_bias",
                "macro_structural_bias",
                "long_only_sell_as_reduce_or_exit"
              ],
              "macd_hist": null,
              "macro_agent_signed": 0.0,
              "macro_agent_weight": 0.4374033383868269,
              "macro_structural_score": -0.08782915288582742,
              "market_momentum": 6.184546878825343e-06,
              "ml_score": -0.11916661036036191,
              "narrative_score": 0.0,
              "news_score": 0.0,
              "pair": "BTC/USDT",
              "price_vs_slow": 0.0,
              "reason_codes": [
                "direction_sell"
              ],
              "regime": null,
              "rsi": null,
              "score": -0.07237133915855008,
              "score_deadband": 0.042,
              "source": "deterministic_fallback"
            }
          },
          "supervisor": {
            "action": "hold",
            "blocking_factors": [
              "synthetic_price_only"
            ],
            "confidence": 0.37197537671195907,
            "constraints": {},
            "explanation": "LLM unavailable/invalid; SupervisorAgent applied deterministic arbitration.",
            "mode": "degraded",
            "overrides": [
              "price_safety_override"
            ],
            "raw_refs": {},
            "reasons": [
              "synthetic_price_only"
            ],
            "refs_used": [
              {
                "kind": "compliance",
                "ref": "artifact://136390",
                "title": "None",
                "why": "Compliance gate can override final action"
              },
              {
                "kind": "portfolio",
                "ref": "artifact://136386",
                "title": "None",
                "why": "Portfolio state can reduce or block adding risk"
              },
              {
                "kind": "macro",
                "ref": "artifact://136373",
                "title": "None",
                "why": "Macro backdrop influences regime filter"
              },
              {
                "kind": "ml_judge",
                "ref": "artifact://136425",
                "title": "None",
                "why": "ML trust influences final confidence"
              },
              {
                "kind": "rag_judge",
                "ref": "artifact://136421",
                "title": "None",
                "why": "RAG trust influences evidence usage"
              }
            ],
            "signal": {
              "asset": null,
              "blockers": [],
              "max_position": 6.25,
              "pair": "BTC/USDT",
              "recommended_size_modifier": 0.25,
              "risk_confidence": 0.5792023092256053,
              "risk_ok": true,
              "source": "deterministic_fallback",
              "stop_loss": 0.03889346,
              "strategy_action": "sell",
              "strategy_confidence": 0.37197537671195907
            },
            "winner_factors": [
              "risk_approved",
              "compliance_clear"
            ]
          },
          "trading": {
            "action": "sell",
            "confidence": 0.3653482027906016,
            "constraints": {},
            "explanation": "TradingAgent deterministic fallback used because LLM was unavailable or invalid. Final intent was derived from StrategyAgent output and RiskAgent constraints.",
            "mode": "deterministic",
            "raw_refs": {
              "compliance": "artifact://136390",
              "execution": "artifact://136467",
              "risk_agent_output": "artifact://136460",
              "strategy_agent_output": "artifact://136447"
            },
            "reasons": [],
            "refs_used": [
              {
                "kind": "strategy_agent_output",
                "ref": "artifact://136447",
                "title": "None",
                "why": "Used as the source strategy intent to convert into final trading intent."
              },
              {
                "kind": "risk_agent_output",
                "ref": "artifact://136460",
                "title": "None",
                "why": "Used as the risk approval and constraint layer for final trading intent."
              },
              {
                "kind": "execution_agent_output",
                "ref": "artifact://136467",
                "title": "None",
                "why": "Used as execution-style guidance for final intent shaping."
              },
              {
                "kind": "compliance_snapshot",
                "ref": "artifact://136390",
                "title": "None",
                "why": "Used as policy context so final trading intent respects hard gates."
              }
            ],
            "signal": {
              "asset": null,
              "blockers": [],
              "max_position": 6.25,
              "pair": "BTC/USDT",
              "recommended_size_modifier": 0.25,
              "risk_confidence": 0.5792023092256053,
              "risk_ok": true,
              "source": "deterministic_fallback",
              "stop_loss": 0.03889346,
              "strategy_action": "sell",
              "strategy_confidence": 0.37197537671195907
            }
          },
          "trend": {
            "confidence": 0.22,
            "constraints": {},
            "continuation_probability": 0.42,
            "evidence": [
              "market.momentum",
              "ml.directional_bias"
            ],
            "explanation": "Deterministic trend estimate from momentum and ML directional bias.",
            "invalidators": [
              "momentum_flip",
              "range_break_against_direction"
            ],
            "mode": "degraded",
            "raw_refs": {},
            "reasoning_summary": "Deterministic trend estimate from momentum and ML directional bias.",
            "reasons": [],
            "refs_used": [],
            "reversal_probability": 0.58,
            "signal": {
              "ml_direction": "down",
              "momentum": 0.0
            },
            "trend_direction": "flat",
            "trend_horizon": "intraday",
            "trend_phase": "mean_reversion",
            "trend_strength": 0.0
          }
        },
        "confidence": 0.3,
        "debug": {
          "compliance": {
            "autotrade_safe": false,
            "confidence": 0.0,
            "decision_override": null,
            "deterministic_route_quality": "degraded_deterministic",
            "explanation": "LLM returned invalid output; ComplianceAgent used compliance_snapshot fallback.",
            "llm_status": "exception",
            "mode": "degraded",
            "needs_manual_review": true,
            "quality": "degraded",
            "raw_refs": {},
            "reason": "Client error \u0027404 Not Found\u0027 for url \u0027http://ollama:11434/api/chat\u0027\nFor more information check: https://developer.mozilla.org/en-US/docs/Web/HTTP/Status/404",
            "reasons": [
              "quality.llm_invalid_output"
            ],
            "refs_used": [],
            "signal": {},
            "trading_allowed": true,
            "violations": []
          },
          "evidence": {
            "compliance": "artifact://136390",
            "macro": "artifact://136373",
            "market": {
              "liquidity": "artifact://136244",
              "ohlcv": "artifact://136230",
              "price": "artifact://136249",
              "snapshot": "artifact://136255"
            },
            "ml": [
              "artifact://136403",
              "artifact://136405",
              "artifact://136407",
              "artifact://136408",
              "artifact://136409",
              "artifact://136410"
            ],
            "narratives": "chroma://narratives/f6674cbf3fd95c2d46d84630",
            "news": [],
            "portfolio": "artifact://136386",
            "rag": []
          },
          "execution": {
            "error": "Client error \u0027404 Not Found\u0027 for url \u0027http://ollama:11434/api/chat\u0027\nFor more information check: https://developer.mozilla.org/en-US/docs/Web/HTTP/Status/404",
            "explanation": "ExecutionAgent assessed entry timing and execution style.",
            "mode": "llm_error",
            "model": "gemma3:12b",
            "raw_refs": {},
            "reason": "quality.llm_exception",
            "refs_used": [
              {
                "kind": "market_liquidity",
                "ref": "artifact://136244",
                "title": null,
                "why": "Liquidity evidence used to decide passive/aggressive entry"
              },
              {
                "kind": "market_snapshot",
                "ref": "artifact://136255",
                "title": null,
                "why": "Market snapshot used for execution context"
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            ]
          },
          "execution_plan": {
            "amount": null,
            "execution_style": null,
            "expected_price": null,
            "market_type": "spot",
            "max_slippage_bps": null,
            "notional_usd": 100.0,
            "order_type": null,
            "reduce_only": false,
            "sandbox": null,
            "side": null,
            "slices": null,
            "symbol": "BTC/USDT",
            "time_in_force": "GTC",
            "timeframe": "1h",
            "venue": "binance"
          },
          "judgements": {
            "ml_judge": {
              "error": "Client error \u0027404 Not Found\u0027 for url \u0027http://ollama:11434/api/chat\u0027\nFor more information check: https://developer.mozilla.org/en-US/docs/Web/HTTP/Status/404",
              "explanation": "MLJudgeAgent assessed prediction trustworthiness and model agreement.",
              "mode": "llm_error",
              "model": "gemma3:12b",
              "raw_refs": {},
              "reason": "quality.llm_exception",
              "refs_used": [
                {
                  "kind": "ml_judgement",
                  "ref": "artifact://136425",
                  "title": null,
                  "why": "Judgement artifact used as trust source"
                }
              ]
            },
            "rag_judge": {
              "error": "Client error \u0027404 Not Found\u0027 for url \u0027http://ollama:11434/api/chat\u0027\nFor more information check: https://developer.mozilla.org/en-US/docs/Web/HTTP/Status/404",
              "explanation": "RAGJudgeAgent evaluated context relevance and quality.",
              "mode": "llm_error",
              "model": "gemma3:12b",
              "raw_refs": {},
              "reason": "quality.llm_exception",
              "refs_used": [
                {
                  "kind": "rag_judgement",
                  "ref": "artifact://136421",
                  "title": null,
                  "why": "Judgement artifact used as base evaluation"
                }
              ]
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          },
          "macro": {
            "action": "hold",
            "autotrade_safe": false,
            "bias": "neutral",
            "confidence": 0.5145921628080317,
            "deterministic_route_quality": "degraded_deterministic",
            "explanation": "LLM returned invalid output; MacroAgent used macro_snapshot structural signals fallback.",
            "llm_status": "exception",
            "mode": "degraded",
            "needs_manual_review": true,
            "quality": "degraded",
            "raw_refs": {},
            "reason": "Client error \u0027404 Not Found\u0027 for url \u0027http://ollama:11434/api/chat\u0027\nFor more information check: https://developer.mozilla.org/en-US/docs/Web/HTTP/Status/404",
            "reasons": [
              "quality.llm_invalid_output",
              "macro.structural_fallback"
            ],
            "refs_used": [],
            "regime": "neutral",
            "signal": {
              "macro_regime": "neutral",
              "macro_structural_factors": [
                "crypto_macro_score",
                "usd_strong_crypto_headwind",
                "equity_risk_off"
              ],
              "macro_structural_score": -0.08782915288582742
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          },
          "meta_decision": {
            "action": "paper_only",
            "autotrade_safe": false,
            "confidence": 0.2176,
            "deterministic_route_quality": "degraded_deterministic",
            "edge_score": 0.2418,
            "entry_quality_score": 0.42,
            "execution_vote": "allow",
            "expected_value_score": 0.1983,
            "explanation": "Meta decision derived from strategy/risk/execution/trend/price consistency.",
            "final_summary": "Meta decision derived from strategy/risk/execution/trend/price consistency.",
            "llm_status": "exception",
            "mode": "degraded",
            "needs_manual_review": true,
            "price_asymmetry_score": 0.35,
            "quality": "degraded",
            "raw_refs": {},
            "reason": "Client error \u0027404 Not Found\u0027 for url \u0027http://ollama:11434/api/chat\u0027\nFor more information check: https://developer.mozilla.org/en-US/docs/Web/HTTP/Status/404",
            "reason_codes": [
              "ml_trust_low"
            ],
            "refs_used": [],
            "risk_vote": "allow",
            "should_trade": false,
            "signal": {
              "calibration_score": null,
              "drift_detected": false,
              "health_state": "unknown",
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              "synthetic_price": true,
              "trend_direction": "flat"
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            "skip_reason": "ml_trust_low",
            "trend_alignment_score": 0.4
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          "ml_judge": {
            "error": "Client error \u0027404 Not Found\u0027 for url \u0027http://ollama:11434/api/chat\u0027\nFor more information check: https://developer.mozilla.org/en-US/docs/Web/HTTP/Status/404",
            "explanation": "MLJudgeAgent assessed prediction trustworthiness and model agreement.",
            "mode": "llm_error",
            "model": "gemma3:12b",
            "raw_refs": {},
            "reason": "quality.llm_exception",
            "refs_used": [
              {
                "kind": "ml_judgement",
                "ref": "artifact://136425",
                "title": null,
                "why": "Judgement artifact used as trust source"
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          "onchain": {
            "action": "buy",
            "autotrade_safe": false,
            "bearish_signals": [
              "mempool_quiet:1_sat/vB \u2014 Bitcoin mempool nearly empty, low activity"
            ],
            "bias": "bullish",
            "bullish_signals": [
              "cross_exchange_funding_negative:-0.0000 \u2014 shorts overextended cross-exchange (squeeze risk)",
              "fear_greed_extreme_fear:15/100 \u2014 extreme panic, contrarian buy signal"
            ],
            "confidence": 0.6656,
            "data_quality": "live",
            "derivatives_signal": "neutral",
            "exchange_flow_signal": "neutral",
            "explanation": "On-chain signals lean BULLISH (score: +0.228). Bullish factors: cross_exchange_funding_negative:-0.0000 \u2014 shorts overextended cross-exchange (squeeze risk); fear_greed_extreme_fear:15/100 \u2014 extreme panic, contrarian buy signal. Bearish factors: mempool_quiet:1_sat/vB \u2014 Bitcoin mempool nearly empty, low activity.",
            "extra_metrics": {
              "avg_funding_rate": -1.851373585055e-05,
              "btc_dominance_pct": 57.25971762860914,
              "btc_hash_rate": 911866649792.5046,
              "btc_tx_count_24h": 499839,
              "defi_tvl_change_7d_pct": 4.694748414146506,
              "defi_tvl_usd": 95829292822.0,
              "fear_greed_index": 15.0,
              "fear_greed_label": "Extreme Fear",
              "market_cap_change_24h_pct": 1.177094593460749,
              "mempool_fastest_fee": 1.0,
              "okx_funding_rate": 3.52225282989e-05
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            "llm_status": "exception",
            "mode": "deterministic",
            "needs_manual_review": false,
            "network_signal": "shrinking",
            "onchain_available": true,
            "quality": "trusted",
            "refs_used": [
              {
                "kind": "onchain_snapshot",
                "ref": "artifact://136377",
                "title": null,
                "why": "Primary on-chain evidence"
              }
            ],
            "score": 0.228,
            "sources_count": 10,
            "valuation_signal": "unknown"
          },
          "portfolio": {
            "error": "Client error \u0027404 Not Found\u0027 for url \u0027http://ollama:11434/api/chat\u0027\nFor more information check: https://developer.mozilla.org/en-US/docs/Web/HTTP/Status/404",
            "explanation": "PortfolioAgent assessed exposure and sizing constraints.",
            "mode": "llm_error",
            "model": "gemma3:12b",
            "raw_refs": {},
            "reason": "quality.llm_exception",
            "refs_used": [
              {
                "kind": "portfolio_snapshot",
                "ref": "artifact://136386",
                "title": null,
                "why": "Portfolio snapshot used for exposure and correlation checks"
              }
            ]
          },
          "price": {
            "autotrade_safe": false,
            "confidence": 0.3334,
            "deterministic_route_quality": "degraded_deterministic",
            "expected_close": 68860.5654623931,
            "expected_high": 69686.89224794183,
            "expected_low": 68034.23867684438,
            "expected_move_pct": -5.362497466216286,
            "explanation": "Deterministic price corridor from ML bias and realized volatility.",
            "horizon": "1h",
            "llm_status": "exception",
            "mode": "degraded",
            "needs_manual_review": true,
            "path_shape": "trend",
            "predicted_close_is_synthetic": true,
            "price_range_68": {
              "high": 73635.59939999999,
              "low": 71889.3006
            },
            "price_range_95": {
              "high": 74421.43385999999,
              "low": 71103.46613999999
            },
            "quality": "degraded",
            "raw_refs": {},
            "reason": "Client error \u0027404 Not Found\u0027 for url \u0027http://ollama:11434/api/chat\u0027\nFor more information check: https://developer.mozilla.org/en-US/docs/Web/HTTP/Status/404",
            "reasoning_summary": "Deterministic price corridor from ML bias and realized volatility.",
            "refs_used": [],
            "signal": {
              "ml_score": -0.11916661036036191,
              "predicted_close_is_synthetic": true,
              "realized_vol_short": 0.012
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            "sl_hard": 67885.09432799139,
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          "rag_judge": {
            "error": "Client error \u0027404 Not Found\u0027 for url \u0027http://ollama:11434/api/chat\u0027\nFor more information check: https://developer.mozilla.org/en-US/docs/Web/HTTP/Status/404",
            "explanation": "RAGJudgeAgent evaluated context relevance and quality.",
            "mode": "llm_error",
            "model": "gemma3:12b",
            "raw_refs": {},
            "reason": "quality.llm_exception",
            "refs_used": [
              {
                "kind": "rag_judgement",
                "ref": "artifact://136421",
                "title": null,
                "why": "Judgement artifact used as base evaluation"
              }
            ]
          },
          "risk": {
            "action_after_risk": "sell",
            "action_before_risk": "sell",
            "active_risk_factors": [
              {
                "blocking": false,
                "evidence": {
                  "ml_mode": null,
                  "signal_source": "deterministic_fallback"
                },
                "explanation": "Model confidence context is degraded or based on fallback inference.",
                "id": "model_degraded_or_fallback",
                "mitigation": "Lower aggressiveness and prioritize market/liquidity confirmation.",
                "refs": [
                  "artifact://136255",
                  "artifact://136447",
                  "artifact://136386"
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                "score": 0.68,
                "severity": "elevated",
                "source": "ml.prediction",
                "title": "Model quality / fallback risk",
                "type": "model_risk"
              },
              {
                "blocking": false,
                "evidence": {
                  "allow_short": false
                },
                "explanation": "User profile/policy disallows short entry in current configuration.",
                "id": "policy_short_not_allowed",
                "mitigation": "Interpret as reduce-only or switch to allowed direction.",
                "refs": [
                  "artifact://136255",
                  "artifact://136447",
                  "artifact://136386"
                ],
                "score": 0.72,
                "severity": "high",
                "source": "risk_prefs",
                "title": "Short selling disabled by policy",
                "type": "policy_risk"
              },
              {
                "blocking": false,
                "evidence": {
                  "momentum": 6.184546878825343e-06
                },
                "explanation": "Momentum/entry timing is weak for directional execution.",
                "id": "strategy_timing_weak",
                "mitigation": "Wait for clearer trend confirmation.",
                "refs": [
                  "artifact://136255",
                  "artifact://136447",
                  "artifact://136386"
                ],
                "score": 0.44,
                "severity": "moderate",
                "source": "strategy.signal",
                "title": "Strategy timing risk",
                "type": "strategy_risk"
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            ],
            "autotrade_allowed": true,
            "autotrade_safe": false,
            "blocking_risks": [],
            "caution_risks": [
              {
                "blocking": false,
                "evidence": {
                  "ml_mode": null,
                  "signal_source": "deterministic_fallback"
                },
                "explanation": "Model confidence context is degraded or based on fallback inference.",
                "id": "model_degraded_or_fallback",
                "mitigation": "Lower aggressiveness and prioritize market/liquidity confirmation.",
                "refs": [
                  "artifact://136255",
                  "artifact://136447",
                  "artifact://136386"
                ],
                "score": 0.68,
                "severity": "elevated",
                "source": "ml.prediction",
                "title": "Model quality / fallback risk",
                "type": "model_risk"
              },
              {
                "blocking": false,
                "evidence": {
                  "allow_short": false
                },
                "explanation": "User profile/policy disallows short entry in current configuration.",
                "id": "policy_short_not_allowed",
                "mitigation": "Interpret as reduce-only or switch to allowed direction.",
                "refs": [
                  "artifact://136255",
                  "artifact://136447",
                  "artifact://136386"
                ],
                "score": 0.72,
                "severity": "high",
                "source": "risk_prefs",
                "title": "Short selling disabled by policy",
                "type": "policy_risk"
              },
              {
                "blocking": false,
                "evidence": {
                  "momentum": 6.184546878825343e-06
                },
                "explanation": "Momentum/entry timing is weak for directional execution.",
                "id": "strategy_timing_weak",
                "mitigation": "Wait for clearer trend confirmation.",
                "refs": [
                  "artifact://136255",
                  "artifact://136447",
                  "artifact://136386"
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                "score": 0.44,
                "severity": "moderate",
                "source": "strategy.signal",
                "title": "Strategy timing risk",
                "type": "strategy_risk"
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            "confidence_after_risk": 0.3184046184512106,
            "confidence_before_risk": 0.37197537671195907,
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            "deterministic_route_quality": "degraded_deterministic",
            "explanation": "Risk level low (score=0.21); 3 active factors, 0 blocking. Action sell -\u003e sell; size x0.25, confidence 0.37-\u003e0.32.",
            "explanation_for_chat": "Detected risks: model_degraded_or_fallback, policy_short_not_allowed, strategy_timing_weak. Main impact: forbid_short, reduce_size.",
            "explanation_for_ui": "Risk level low (score=0.21); 3 active factors, 0 blocking. Action sell -\u003e sell; size x0.25, confidence 0.37-\u003e0.32.",
            "llm_status": "exception",
            "manual_review_required": false,
            "max_position": 25.0,
            "meta": {
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              "max_leverage": 1.0,
              "missing_inputs": [
                "metrics.atr_pct",
                "metrics.spread_bps"
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              "strategy_action": "sell",
              "volatility": null
            },
            "mitigations": [
              "Lower aggressiveness and prioritize market/liquidity confirmation.",
              "Interpret as reduce-only or switch to allowed direction.",
              "Wait for clearer trend confirmation."
            ],
            "mode": "degraded",
            "needs_manual_review": true,
            "ok": true,
            "quality": "degraded",
            "raw_refs": {
              "market_snapshot": "artifact://136255",
              "portfolio": "artifact://136386",
              "rag": [],
              "strategy_agent_output": "artifact://136447"
            },
            "reason": "Client error \u0027404 Not Found\u0027 for url \u0027http://ollama:11434/api/chat\u0027\nFor more information check: https://developer.mozilla.org/en-US/docs/Web/HTTP/Status/404",
            "reasons": [
              "model_degraded_or_fallback",
              "policy_short_not_allowed",
              "strategy_timing_weak"
            ],
            "recommended_size_modifier": 0.25,
            "refs_used": [
              {
                "kind": "market_snapshot",
                "ref": "artifact://136255",
                "title": null,
                "why": "Used as current market context for risk constraints and sizing checks."
              },
              {
                "kind": "strategy_agent_output",
                "ref": "artifact://136447",
                "title": null,
                "why": "Used as the proposed strategy intent being evaluated by RiskAgent."
              },
              {
                "kind": "portfolio_snapshot",
                "ref": "artifact://136386",
                "title": null,
                "why": "Used as portfolio exposure context for risk budgeting."
              }
            ],
            "risk_breakdown": {
              "data_risk": {
                "score": 0.3333333333333333,
                "severity": "moderate"
              },
              "event_risk": {
                "score": 0.0,
                "severity": "low"
              },
              "execution_risk": {
                "score": 0.0,
                "severity": "low"
              },
              "liquidity_risk": {
                "score": 0.0,
                "severity": "low"
              },
              "market_risk": {
                "score": 0.0,
                "severity": "low"
              },
              "model_risk": {
                "score": 0.68,
                "severity": "elevated"
              },
              "policy_risk": {
                "score": 0.72,
                "severity": "high"
              },
              "portfolio_risk": {
                "score": 0.0,
                "severity": "low"
              },
              "signal_risk": {
                "score": 0.40003971498071117,
                "severity": "moderate"
              },
              "strategy_risk": {
                "score": 0.44,
                "severity": "moderate"
              },
              "system_risk": {
                "score": 0.0,
                "severity": "low"
              }
            },
            "risk_confidence": 0.8,
            "risk_impact": {
              "action_after_risk": "sell",
              "action_before_risk": "sell",
              "blocked_by": [],
              "confidence_after_risk": 0.3184046184512106,
              "confidence_before_risk": 0.37197537671195907,
              "final_reason": "Risk level low (score=0.21); 3 active factors, 0 blocking.",
              "overrides": [
                "forbid_short",
                "reduce_size"
              ],
              "size_modifier": 0.25
            },
            "risk_level": "low",
            "risk_score": 0.2057384962808258,
            "risk_summary": "Risk level low (score=0.21); 3 active factors, 0 blocking.",
            "stop_loss": 0.03889346
          },
          "sentiment": {
            "error": "Client error \u0027404 Not Found\u0027 for url \u0027http://ollama:11434/api/chat\u0027\nFor more information check: https://developer.mozilla.org/en-US/docs/Web/HTTP/Status/404",
            "explanation": "SentimentAgent analysis based on news flow and narratives.",
            "mode": "llm_error",
            "model": "gemma3:12b",
            "raw_refs": {},
            "reason": "quality.llm_exception",
            "refs_used": [
              {
                "kind": "narratives",
                "ref": "artifact://136319",
                "title": null,
                "why": "Narratives enrichment used as sentiment source"
              }
            ]
          },
          "strategy": {
            "action": "sell",
            "action_tradeable": true,
            "autotrade_safe": false,
            "bias": "bearish",
            "confidence": 0.37197537671195907,
            "constraints": {
              "allow_short": null,
              "blacklist": [],
              "horizon": null,
              "max_leverage": null,
              "max_position_usd": null,
              "preferred_assets": [],
              "style": null
            },
            "deterministic_route_quality": "full_deterministic",
            "disagreement_flags": [],
            "explanation": "StrategyAgent deterministic fallback used because LLM was unavailable or invalid. Decision was derived from ML direction, market momentum/regime, narrative sentiment and news bias.",
            "llm_status": "exception",
            "mode": "deterministic",
            "needs_manual_review": true,
            "profile_summary_text": "language=Default",
            "quality": "partial",
            "raw_refs": {
              "market_snapshot": "artifact://136255",
              "ml": [
                "{\u0027prediction_ref\u0027: \u0027artifact://136403\u0027, \u0027model\u0027: \u0027tp_eq_sl\u0027, \u0027timeframe\u0027: \u00271h\u0027, \u0027confidence\u0027: 0.7938766393350818}",
                "{\u0027prediction_ref\u0027: \u0027artifact://136405\u0027, \u0027model\u0027: \u0027tp_3sl\u0027, \u0027timeframe\u0027: \u00271h\u0027, \u0027confidence\u0027: 0.9251244826190914}",
                "{\u0027prediction_ref\u0027: \u0027artifact://136407\u0027, \u0027model\u0027: \u0027sl_3tp\u0027, \u0027timeframe\u0027: \u00271h\u0027, \u0027confidence\u0027: 0.9379168608324758}",
                "{\u0027prediction_ref\u0027: \u0027artifact://136408\u0027, \u0027model\u0027: \u0027ensemble.direction\u0027, \u0027timeframe\u0027: \u00271h\u0027, \u0027confidence\u0027: 0.8933376454449184}",
                "{\u0027prediction_ref\u0027: \u0027artifact://136409\u0027, \u0027model\u0027: \u0027ensemble.price\u0027, \u0027timeframe\u0027: \u00271h\u0027, \u0027confidence\u0027: 0.8933376454449184}",
                "{\u0027prediction_ref\u0027: \u0027artifact://136410\u0027, \u0027model\u0027: \u0027ensemble.orchestrated\u0027, \u0027timeframe\u0027: \u00271h\u0027, \u0027confidence\u0027: 0.8933376454449184}"
              ],
              "narratives": "artifact://136319",
              "news": [],
              "rag": []
            },
            "reason": "Client error \u0027404 Not Found\u0027 for url \u0027http://ollama:11434/api/chat\u0027\nFor more information check: https://developer.mozilla.org/en-US/docs/Web/HTTP/Status/404",
            "refs_used": [
              {
                "kind": "market_snapshot",
                "ref": "artifact://136255",
                "title": null,
                "why": "Used as the primary market state input for strategy formation."
              },
              {
                "kind": "narratives",
                "ref": "artifact://136319",
                "title": null,
                "why": "Used as narrative/sentiment context for structural market interpretation."
              },
              {
                "kind": "ml_prediction",
                "ref": "artifact://136403",
                "title": "tp_eq_sl:1h",
                "why": "Used as ML directional evidence for short-term strategy assessment."
              },
              {
                "kind": "ml_prediction",
                "ref": "artifact://136405",
                "title": "tp_3sl:1h",
                "why": "Used as ML directional evidence for short-term strategy assessment."
              },
              {
                "kind": "ml_prediction",
                "ref": "artifact://136407",
                "title": "sl_3tp:1h",
                "why": "Used as ML directional evidence for short-term strategy assessment."
              },
              {
                "kind": "ml_prediction",
                "ref": "artifact://136408",
                "title": "ensemble.direction:1h",
                "why": "Used as ML directional evidence for short-term strategy assessment."
              },
              {
                "kind": "ml_prediction",
                "ref": "artifact://136409",
                "title": "ensemble.price:1h",
                "why": "Used as ML directional evidence for short-term strategy assessment."
              },
              {
                "kind": "ml_prediction",
                "ref": "artifact://136410",
                "title": "ensemble.orchestrated:1h",
                "why": "Used as ML directional evidence for short-term strategy assessment."
              }
            ],
            "signal": {
              "asset": "BTC",
              "bias": "bearish",
              "blockers": [],
              "direction": "down",
              "factors": [
                "ml_directional_bias",
                "macro_structural_bias",
                "long_only_sell_as_reduce_or_exit"
              ],
              "macd_hist": null,
              "macro_agent_signed": 0.0,
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